Friday, April 25, 2008

While I Was Sleeping - The Pennsylvania Primary

I was on the road a lot this week, including on Tuesday night and Wednesday. As a result, I haven't really had a chance to weigh in on the results from the Pennsylvania primary yet. I had hoped the Democrats in that state would end this thing by delivering a closer margin, or even victory to Barack Obama. Well, that didn't happen, so Hillary has the news cycle for the next fews days, and I'm sure we're going to inundated with the terms resurgence and electability.

Whatever. Here's a reality-based breakdown of the numbers
from Dallas Progress:

Pennsylvania Results: 99.44% Reporting

Clinton 1,258,748 54.7%
Obama 1,042,962 45.3%

Total Votes 2,301,710

Delegates: 158 tied to April 22 primary, 29 superdelegates

Delegates Gained in PA primary (est): Obama 74 Clinton 84 (Clinton +10)

Est % of remaining delegates needed to clinch:
Obama 30-32%, depending on the source
Clinton 68-70%.

Hmm, looks a little different than the thundering media narrative would have you believe. Not to mention that there are so many other factors involved when looking at her margin of victory that for some reason, the media narrative is not focusing upon at all.

Like the fact that this was a Democrats only primary with no Independents allowed. Do you think that might have had an impact?

Or how about the Republican crossover vote? We saw it here in Texas in early March too. McCain has his parties nomination wrapped up, so why not throw your vote in the Democratic primary with the hopes of keeping this contentious race going for a little while longer? McCain can sit back in the meantime and watch as the Democrats decimate each other in their typical circular firing squad fashion.

The end result is that once again, Hillary Clinton did not achieve the landslide victory she needed in order to make a dent in Obama's delegate lead. And Pennsylvania was the last, best chance to make that happen in a single, big state.

Bottom line, Barack Obama still leads in every category, and barring some astronomical shifts in the primary voting patterns so far, will be the nominee of the Democratic Party.
That's also assuming that a Clinton inspired superdelegate coup does not take place. But the Democrats wouldn't be that stupid and risk alienating their most reliable voting constituency would they?

Would they?


jobsanger said...

I hope they wouldn't do anything that stupid, but the Democrats have snatched defeat from the jaws of victory before.
I won't feel comfortable until the convention officially gives Obama the nomination.

DP said...

jobsanger - Thanks for coming over, and I completely and totally concur. We need to rid of the current pack of incompetents who are ruining this country for everybody, so I really hope that the Dems get it together so that we can face the Republicans in the fall united.

Still hopeful, but the pessimism is growing.